Posts Tagged ‘short’

Notes from @alphatrends Free Webinar

Posted in After Hours, Information, Technical Analysis on December 21st, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments

Brian Shannon - @alphatrendsWow, just finished up a whirlwind session with Brian Shannon (aka @alphatrends) reviewing a ton of charts for the week. He opened up his usual subscriber webinar session to the public, so I jumped at the opportunity to learn from him.

I furiously took some notes in an attempt to retain a fraction of the information for later use. Figured I’d share what I captured for those who weren’t able to make it. I signed-on a touch late, so missed the beginning part. However, Brian’s extensive knowledge and experience certainly shows in going through a ton of charts at lightning speed. Good stuff!

For those interested in learning more from Brian, he has a premium blog, AlphaTrends.net, on the Stocktwits Network. He is also the author of Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes. I don’t have that book yet, but it’s on my list, so hopefully I can provide a review someday.

Anyway, here are my notes from the webinar. As with all stock mentions on my site, these are neither recommendations or endorsements for any play. (See the Disclaimer.) I may have even mistyped something, so don’t blame either me or Brian if anything doesn’t jive with what you see in your own analysis of the stocks and charts.

Enjoy and happy trading!

Long Ideas

  • FLIR – official idea
  • RFMD – official idea
  • KG
  • AA
  • AEP
  • AF
  • APWR
  • AXL
  • BIOF
  • CMTL
  • FCS – above 9.8 stop below 9.45
  • ITRI – support at 67, b/o above 67.40+
  • NEP
  • OHI – break above 19.05
  • CNU – breaking out from consolidation
  • PAET – look for p/b then get in… stop @ 4.03
  • QLTI – stop 4.68 b/o @ 5.00
  • VVUS – in @ 9.30, stop @ 9.35 room to 10.50
  • VZ – broke resistance @ 33, advance then p/b. 33.20 entry with 32.9 stop
  • AKNS – right @ 5dma up to 1.45
  • CSUN – looking for p/b to 4.50, b/o on daily chart, could be chasing
  • JASO – similar to what CSUN could do
  • YGE – good possibility, could be b/o looming, good weekly chart, bot Jan 16 calls

Short Ideas

  • GENZ – looking week, possibly down to 42
  • ENDP – below 19.50, b/d
  • MUR – bearish flag
  • TNDM – hammering @ support @ 20.50

Other Charts

  • RIMM – at previously weekly support, could need to work to break above, needs to settle in, could set some higher lows and break above
  • EXPE – Good weekly chart (6-26) 26 is prior support, now resistance, neutral over last 3 weeks, support 24.50-25.00 (prefer stocks like AF that are just possibly starting a move)
  • QTWW – some support @ 1.05, but below DMA, neutral at best
  • UMPQ – support @ 10DMA, p/b to 20DMA, broke resistance @ 12.50-12.60. Would like p/b to that level then past 12.80. Potential to 14.50-15.00
  • JAZZ – lighter volume, good pattern on daily, possibly a little stretched on weekly, broke resistance late in day, could make to prior support @ 9.25
  • CTXS – daily looks good, broke resistance, should wait for a p/b
  • PCX – looking like AA, needs time to rebuild for another day or two then b/o
  • LSCC – MAs in alignment. Stop @ 2.70. Look for move above 2.86
  • PWER – In big uptrend, but need p/b before getting in.
  • IO – b/o on weekly @ 4.00 (again similar to AF, AA) daily setting higher lows, b/o and pulled back to resistance, needs to clear 6.20 before looking at again (look @ 1min chart)
  • ARTG – b/o on daily on good volume, inverted H/S on weekly, could get to 5.25
  • SEED – breaking down below 5DMA, short-term downtrend, let it play out before making a move, week away from getting back above 5DMA (if at all)
  • NABI – not thrilled on weekly timeframe, false breakouts @ 5.25 could still be a possibility
  • CDE – below 50DMA, needs to play out similar to SEED, prior support @ 19.25 acted as resistance
  • TVL – more neutral than anything, watch out for stocks under 500K daily volume
  • TSO – rallying up to a declining 50DMA, neutral at best
  • BPO – broke past resistance, retailer on some momentum, getting ready for next leg higher, watch out for lower highs on 30min. Needs to make higher high, stop @ 12.18
  • MEA – pretty neutral D-list, getting volume on moves higher but no breakout, alert set @ 4.70 to watch, bullish consolidation on weekly
  • COV – PLC stock, so watch for gaps. Solid rally on weekly, small consolidation right now. Needs to clear 47.50 and increasing 5DMA
  • RHT – broke resistance on daily and weekly, not freshest b/o. Also good break on 30min, 29.50 should now be support
  • BZH – Recovery from support, somewhat neutral, still lower highs on weekly
  • CLX – Break resistance and pulled back to support. Currently declining 5DMA. Entry on today’s high, stop around 61.60.
  • X – In nice uptrend, such a big run so a bit extended. Would need p/b to consider better r/r on play.
  • OESX – Thinly traded. Nice b/o on daily with volume. Watch closely if it starts breaking down. Recent low on 10min as stop.
  • ICE – Choppy stock, too irradic to look at.
  • HW – Great b/o last week. Could have room up to 7.50. Look for p/b to 5DMA.

February Expiration Week Recap

Posted in Expiration, Position Update, Short Puts on February 21st, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments
February options expiration.

February options expiration.

All right, February equity options are done. I managed to pull in and retain about $600 for the month. Not to toot my own horn too much, but that’s not bad considering the size of my trading account (deposits totaling $3500), and that I originally received about $890 in cash through the sale of put options on PHM and AFAM. Here’s a review for the last 4-ish weeks on those stocks and the plays I made on them.

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Position Update: AFAM and PHM, President’s Day weekend

Posted in Position Update, Short Puts on February 16th, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments

Happy President’s day everyone! The markets are closed today, but that just provides and extra day to take stock of where my positions are at and start to look ahead to new opportunities for March. After catching the Saturday morning brunch session with @tickerville through StockTwits, I’m geared up for some new positions.

But, more on new opportunities later. Let’s first dig into updates on our current holdings, as those always need to be the focus over future prospects. There’s only four days left until February expiration, but it only takes a day to wipe out profits if you’re not paying attention.

AFAM chart. Click to enlarge.

AFAM chart. Click to enlarge.

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Position Update: AFAM and PHM – February countdown

Posted in Position Update, Short Puts on February 10th, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments

Apologies for the lack of posts last week, but time worked against me. Fortunately for my current trades, time is working for me! Last week provided some welcome turn-around in the stock prices of Almost Family (AFAM) and Pulte Homes (PHM). Today, we’re giving some back so far. Here’s a snapshot of my open plays as of this afternoon:

Account snapshot midday 2009-02-10

Midday account snapshot, 2/9/2009

I need to provide an update on where things stand and a glimpse at the the remaining two weeks until options expiration. I was thinking about breaking this into a couple posts, one for each security, but in an effort to get this done sooner rather than later, I’ll keep it combined for this go around. read more »

Position Update: Pulte Homes, Almost Family – February 2

Posted in Position Update on February 3rd, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments
Account balance. Click to enlarge.

Account balance. Click to enlarge.

The first week of February indicates we’re getting close to expiration on the short put trades for PHM and AFAM. There’s still 17 days left until expiration, but time always moves forward, so I still believe in selling time to make money. Yea for short puts!

So, where are we today with the positions on Pulte Homes and Almost Family? They haven’t been too “Yea!” of late, to be honest. Things are finallly looking a little better than they did last week. PHM did all right, but AFAM almost tripled in value from the opening sale at $.85. Let’s take a little closer look at both of these and see if we’re still okay.

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Almost Family almost at a bottom?

Posted in Position Update on January 27th, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments

Well, I certainly would not have guessed this is where the positions would be when I initially entered my short put trades on PHM and AFAM a couple weeks ago. I suppose that’s the beauty of playing around the stock market. You never really know for certain what is going to happen! read more »

Position Update: PHM, AFAM – January 23

Posted in Position Update on January 23rd, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments
PHM snapshot - 2009-01-23

Click to enlarge.

Okay, once I get going with things a bit more, I’d like to at least make bi-daily updates, but I guess I first need to get in a groove here. As a quick pre-noon glance, the short puts on PHM and AFAM are still holding up. read more »

Current Positions: Almost Family and Pulte Homes

Posted in Short Puts on January 21st, 2009 by STO Trader – View Comments

Let’s kick things off by going through my current positions. Last Friday was expiration for January options. I had already closed out of all my previous positions, so I started to look towards February options for new opportunities. Both Almost Family (AFAM) and Pulte Homes (PHM) have been on my watch list since November. AFAM because it was touching new highs and had building pessimism, which is a good contrarian mix. PHM was put on my list due to an article on Shaeffer’s Investment Research (SIR) about a play on Pulte Home’s long-term support. read more »